The Folly of an Economic Stimulus Package

I constantly underestimate how little our politicians in this country understand about economics. The latest talk about needing a economic stimulus package is a great example.

Russell Roberts said this on NPR yesterday about stimulus packages:

The money has to come from somewhere. If you raise taxes to fund the plan, the people who are taxed are poorer and they'll spend less. If you borrow money to fund the plan, the people who buy the government bonds have less money to spend and that offsets the stimulus. It's like taking a bucket of water from the deep end of a pool and dumping it into the shallow end. Funny thing—the water in the shallow end doesn't get any deeper.

And even the people who get the money often save more of it than they spend.

That's why stimulus schemes based on giving people money have a poor track record of energizing the economy. Usually, the only thing that gets stimulated is a politician's approval rating.

Comments

Economic Stimulus Package

Why is it that both Republicans and Democrats feel that it is needed? This is the only time in my recent memory that they have agreed on anything.

The president's approval

The president's approval ratings can use all help they can get. Maybe the hope is that by the time the "stimulus package" would be supposed to take effect the economy will have pulled through on its own.

Will, do you have an opinion on Ben Bernanke?

n/a

Stimulation

Recently, Thompson criticized Huckabee for using the phrase “living, breathing document,” in reference to the Constitution. He said “Frankly, I assumed this came from Senator Clinton or Senator Obama.” I had the same reaction when I heard the words “stimulus package.”

I'm not an economist, but I don't see how

China, Japan, or Taiwan buying our bonds would offset the stimulus created by the "free money" checks. In short, we're not dealing with one pool - it's several pools that can overspill into one another under certain conditions. I do think the checks are a bad idea, but not for the reason cited, which strikes me as wrong, or at least vastly oversold.

Analogies

I’m not in a position to complain about analogies…but I like the multiple pool idea, I would add that they are pools that are dynamically expanding and contracting for a host of reasons. I don’t know who will buy the bonds—but presumably they are rational, uh, agents. I do wonder, with a 5% unemployment rate and a positive projected growth rate, why in the world a “stimulus package” is a good idea.

A Rate Cut

It seems to me that a run up in rates over concerns of inflation (doesn't that seem quaint now?) was the flashpoint of this current economic downturn. Today's emergency .75% cut should help if it translates into lower mortgage rates so folks in danger of losing their homes can refinance and banks won't have to take the entire loss.

In a larger scheme, can we get off a petrol-based economy so that when the price of oil rises, we don't worry about upward inflationary pressures?

Funky!

Now that was an interesting one-two punch thrown at the probability of a recession. Jab with a fiscal punch (the stimulus package) and follow up quickly with a monetary punch (the rate cut). Huh...

The short answer to your question is no, we can't any time soon. We can substitute nuclear or coal (take your pick and keep your head down if there are any environmentalists around--they dislike the truth) for some part of that base--but, neither will solve the transportation problem which is the lion's share.

when will the package take

when will the package take effect, this year or next

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