Progress, right?

Can we agree yet that there is significant military AND political progress in Iraq?

And even if you answer "no" (and I don't see how you could), can we agree that this is a good thing (from frontpagemag.com):

IRAQIS REACH AGREEMENT ON REFORMS

By Ed Morrissey

It looks like the Iraqi political leadership remained on the job during their August recess. Representatives of all main sects in Iraq announced agreement on the most contentious issues, including a deal to initiate revenue sharing on oil production that concerned the American Congress most (via Power Line):

Iraq's top Shi'ite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish political leaders announced on Sunday they had reached consensus on some key measures seen as vital to fostering national reconciliation.

The agreement by the five leaders was one of the most significant political developments in Iraq for months and was quickly welcomed by the United States, which hopes such moves will ease sectarian violence that has killed tens of thousands. ...

Maliki's appearance on Iraqi television with the four other leaders at a brief news conference was a rare show of public unity.

The other officials present were President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd; Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi; Shi'ite Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi, and Masoud Barzani, president of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region.

Iraqi officials said the five leaders had agreed on draft legislation that would ease curbs on former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party joining the civil service and military.

Consensus was also reached on a law governing provincial powers as well as setting up a mechanism to release some detainees held without charge, a key demand of Sunni Arabs since the majority being held are Sunnis.

The signs of progress had been building, and it started with the surge. That forced Maliki to look for Shi'ite support apart from radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who not only opposed the surge but also served as an Iranian stooge in Iraq. Once Sadr fled to Iran, Maliki started building a coalition of other Shi'ites and Kurds to replace him -- and when Sadr yanked his followers from Maliki's government, he wound up surviving the crisis.

Eleven days ago, Maliki went to Tikrit. Saying that Shi'ites take their lives in their hands there is a bit of an understatement. He went to meet with Sunni leaders after apparently spending several weeks paving the road for some agreement on the reforms. The work Petraeus did in quieting the Sunni provinces has allowed the tribes to coordinate on their own political aims and to build some unity of purpose.

When the National Assembly returns in a couple of weeks, the reforms should get pushed through quickly with this kind of support. Perhaps the Iraqis knew all along that the best way to win reform was to wait for the Assembly to take a break so that quieter negotiations could produce better results. Perhaps the Iraqis knew this a little better than their American counterparts.

Speaking of which, what will Congress have to say now that significant progress has been made both politically and militarily? Sunday, August 26, 2007

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Comments

If only if we agree it is because America is talking of withdraw

Michael,

I'm not ready to agree that Iraq is getting better until we see some sort of real action on the ground and this week's Karbala clashes don't appear to support the view that Iraq is on the road to national unity.

However, even if we agree that Iraq is on the road to recovery, you can't necessarily say the "surge" is the reason. An equally plausible reason is that Iraqi politicians know they have until the end of Bush's presidency before they lose US troops. It is the spector of a US withdrawal that is bringing these guys to the table and forcing them to take control of their own country.

I think the much talked about "success" in the Anbar province underscores my point.

Not so much...

Time magazine thinks the latest agreement is completely worthless.

The agreement didn't include representatives from the bloc loyal to Shi'ite politician and militia chieftain Moqtada al-Sadr. A senior Western diplomat earlier this month praised Maliki for distancing himself from Sadr, widely viewed as the Shi'ite leader most responsible for sectarian violence, but American officials are well aware that Sadr and his followers cannot simply be marginalized.

and Middle Eastern expert, Marc Lynch believes that the entire agreement was only for American consumption to help President Bush continue his strategy.

This agreement was likely produced for the sole purpose of giving Ryan Crocker something to bring back to Congress (and is what I expected weeks ago). But it doesn't actually solve anything: Hashemi has made very clear that he has no intention of rejoining Maliki's government, the agreements exist only on paper at this point, and nothing has been done about the deeply sectarian nature of what passes for the Iraqi state.

It's important for Hashemi, though, because he and the other national Sunni politicians are desperate for something, anything to show for their decision to work with Maliki and the American (and Iranian) backed political process. Hashemi and the Tawafuq Bloc are struggling to maintain their own influence within the Sunni community on two fronts - against the tribal shaykhs of the various Awakenings, who at last count are not planning to offer up replacements for the Tawafuq Bloc in Maliki's government (but the story changes twice a day), and against the insurgency groups who are trying to form their own political front. Their rather forlorn hope is that they can get the Americans to deliver enough to maintain their standing, since they know perfectly well that left to their own devices the Shia-Kurd Maliki 4 bloc would offer nothing.

Both articles are worth an entire read.

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