Liveblogging the 2006 Election
Just wanted everyone to know that we will be liveblogging the election returns here in the comment thread today. Please feel free to join us and take part in what should be a fun evening.
Update: Good quote from La Shawn Barber: "I’ve been less than impressed with national Republicans, and I don’t see a big downside to having a Democratic Congress. That’s how jaded I am. I’ll be surrounded by liberal bloggers tonight, so if Democrats gain control, I’ll have to deal with the gloat factor, which will be unpleasant. Other than that, what’s the difference?"
Update: I'm already hearing some voting irregularity/conspiracy stuff already
Update: Amusing quote from the BBC's Gavin Esler:
"The Democrat campaign seems to boil down to one phrase: "We're not George Bush." And the Republican campaign is similarly taut: "We're not George Bush either.""
Update: Very interesting poll out today:
"Sen. John Kerry's gaffe that Americans who do not do well in school end up in Iraq has triggered deep doubts among some independent voters about voting Democratic in the elections, according to a new Pew poll."
It will be interesting to see if this bears out.
Update: Glenn Reynolds is absolutely correct on this assessment:
"IN A WAY, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW IT TURNS OUT: The message for the Republicans -- and the Democrats -- is that they need to do much better. The GOP, as I noted before, made a number of "unforced errors" that took them from a strong to a weak position -- not because they spent political capital, but because they squandered it. They were too busy stuffing their pockets and taking their base for granted, and -- whether or not they lose big or lose small -- they could have done beter, without sacrificing any of their principles, if they'd had a bit more self-restraint.Meanwhile, the Democrats, even if they take both houses, will have to actually discover some governing principles -- and if they'd had those on display, they'd be running away with this election right now.
I've written before that technology, diminishing voter loyalty, and new media make a third party a lot more feasible than it used to be. The two big parties are depressingly inept, each arguing that the other is worse, and both make a strong case. . . .
Update: Andrew Sullivan thinks this may be an election where young people make a big difference. I can't see that as this election season and past few years could make a cynic out of almost anyone....except me. :)

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Count me in...
Hey,
I'll be here (unless I'm at a Webb victory party) so the Dems are represented. ;-)
Sorry
My schedule on Tuesday is: teach all day, staff versus student soccer game in the afternoon, vote on my way home from that, spend the last couple hours of the day with my wife and daughter in our home without the internet. But I'll be interested to come in Wednesday morning and see what you all spent the night chatting about. Have a great time!
Early thoughts
So I went and voted at about 7:15 this morning. My precinct is Republican leaning. I was amazed to see a pretty heavy turnout, especially considering the terrible weather. My wife told me that there was a very long line when she went around 9:30.
early am voting in TN
Got in line @ 6:35am, as the 8th person there. Waited in rain until 7am opening of the doors, along w/~50 others. My first experience w/computerized voting machines was OK, but I wonder how people who don't spend their days on computers will fare. My neighbor told me he waited about 45 minutes to get in @8am. I was happy to see that we need ID's (either photo ID or voter registration card) to vote.
I'm very eager to see who won senate race and how TN decides on the "marriage is only b/w one man and one woman" amendment.
My Georgia precinct
Is heavily Republican, and I had to wait a moderate amount of time (15 minutes or so). Poll workers told me that business had been steady all morning.
I don't expect any surprises here. We'll reelect our Republicans to Congress and to the state legislature. (For what it's worth, they're basically all conservative business-oriented Republicans; not a fire-breathing social conservative in the bunch, though Andrew Sullivan might still break out in hives if he encountered them.)
The questions for Georgia are:
(1) Will incumbent Governor Sonny Perdue get the 50% +1 of the vote he needs to avoid a run-off against challenger Mark Taylor?
I think so.
(2) Will Republicans sweep the statewide seats?
I doubt it. I'm betting that Democratic Attorney General Thurbert Baker is reelected, as are Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond and Agriculture Commissioner Tommy Irvin. Baker and Thurmond are attractive African-American faces for the Democratic Party statewide.
(3) Will Republican challengers Max Burns and Mac Collins unseat incumbent Democrats John Barrow and Jim Marshall?
Burns may win back his old seat, unseating freshman John Barrow, whose district was redrawn by the state legislature to make it more Republican. Collins would probably win in a good Republican year, which this is not.
I feel so left out
I'm on the West Coast and not voting until I'm done with work (and here in Washington, not until we load up the arks, too). It's weird to think that by the time I vote many states will be closed and many races will already be called. Of course it also has meant no lines at all for me in the past and I don't mind that. And here we don't have a lot of drama going on. Senator Cantwell has held a lead on McGavick all along and though it never has been big, it should be enough. And there is one close House race between incumbent Rep. Reichart and Dem. challenger Burner but frankly they both look terrible, so I really don't care.
Voting irregularities
Why is it so hard to get it set up where we have a paper trail for all votes and no voting machines are being made that are both A) apparently easy to hack into/mess with and B) made by companies that clearly for one side? I'm not ready to call anyone guilty or anything, but it seems like it would not be that tough to raise it above the level of suspicion and we don't even do that.
Voting irregularities
guru: I don't disagree with you at all about a paper trail. However, we were hearing these silly voting irregularity conspiracy nonsense before electronic voting. In fact, the Democratic hissy-fit after 2000 in Florida is what lead us to this point.
It's only nonsense if you can prove it's not true
I'm sure there is a lot of conspiracy theories that hold no water at all. And certainly it didn't start with the electronic machines (though in the reflective view of what happened in Florida in 2000, I don't think "hissy-fit" is a fair description at all). I don't know how much you've looked into this stuff, but for me, it gets pretty compelling when districts in Ohio in 2004 that have voted Democrat for decades and decades suddenly voted for Bush and when time after time computer techs keep testing these machines and showing their errors and ease of corruption and when the leaders of companies like Diebold promise Bush a victory in 2004 before the election - it does all get a little too overwhelming to dismiss it all as nonsense.
Hate to poke the Conspiracy Bear, but
sources would be useful. In particular, the Diebold quote as it relates to rigging voting machines, and the computer techs who are blowing the whistle on this comprehensive neocon conspiracy.
If you have time, thanks.
Voting in GA
We moved two months ago, so this was my first time voting in our new precinct. I'm not sure what a "normal" turnout is, but the polling place was busy without any actual lines just before noon. I had no problems with the machines, although I did have to ask for the full text of the many GA constitutional amendments which were on today's ballot. I wish I had been more prepared, but the workers were quick to hand me the state-created guide.
All of my voting went smoothly, including my many votes for the Libertarian candidates. It would be fun to see Sonny have to endure a run off because of the LP, but I don't think that's likely.
I'd love to know how much affect the rain has on the turn out. There aren't any compelling races in my area, so I wouldn't be surprised if people just stay home today.
Electioneering
This is a day of pride for native South Carolinians like myself. Governor Mark Sanford was turned away from the polls because he forgot his voter card. Outstanding publicity for the Palmetto state.
Predictions: House for Dems seems clear, even though most people (like me) who say that are going with conventional wisdom rather than looking at specific races. Much more interested in the exciting Senate races. I go back and forth on predictions but for the moment...
Dem pick-ups: Tester over Burns in MT, Webb over Allen in VA, Casey over Santorum in PA, Brown over DeWine in OH
Key Republican holds: Corker over Ford in TN, Talent over McCaskill after recounts, Chafee in late surge past Whitehouse in RI
Key Democratic holds: Cardin barely over Steele
Repubs keep Senate 51-49. If Talent loses and it goes 50-50, Lincoln Chafee (if elected) becomes the most important figure in the Senate.
Exit Polls
Think Progress has the CNN exit polls for the Senate.
They have Democrats with a 7 seat pickup, if my counting is correct.
Re: Exit polls
I count six, which would still of course mean Democratic control of the Senate, if the polls are accurate (a big if).
AP reports 1/3 of white evangelicals vote for Democrats
AP reports that this election1/3 of white evangelicals voted for Democrats today.
Hmm....that probably isn't good for Republicans.
Gov Sanford
EB, you must be proud indeed.
This is my favorite quote from a story I read about it:
"The casting of ballots in front of the news media is a well-worn tradition for politicians, but it was no Kodak moment when Sanford discovered he had left his card behind.
Off camera, South Carolina first lady Jenny Sanford could be heard telling her husband that she had reminded him to bring it. (Watch his wife's stunned reaction -- 2:09)"
full cnn article here:
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/07/sanford.votes/index.html
Polling station -
Polling station - Clairmont/N Druid was busier than I'd ever seen it. I had some difficulty with the UI, and I design them for a living :( How sad!
decided to see how the blinder half lived, and went with the LARGE FONT - how exciting.
liberts and demos across the board, the usual.
This should be interesting!
In Virginia marriage shall only be a man and a woman
CNN is projecting that the "marriage is between a man and a woman" amendment will pass. However, CNN was saying that less than 2/3 of the voters that turned out to vote in favor of that amendment voted for George Allen.
This could be a problem because the initiatives a key lynchpin in the Republican GOTV. It is may have backfired if it drove people to the polls and then they voted against the GOP candidate.
6 in 10 undecideds break for Democrats
Another sign that it could be a good night for Democrats, FoxNews is reporting that only 39% of undecideds voted for Republicans.
Democrats pick up at least one governor seat
In line with my prediction, Ohio's anti-incumbent mood has sent the Republicans packing. Democratic candidate, Strickland, is now governor-elect.
Next president of the United States is on MSNBC right now
Governor Bill Richardson is on MSNBC with Chris Matthews talking about the results, especially the gubernatorial races up for grabs tonight.
VA Senate race
With 16% in, George Allen has 53%. Of course, who knows where those precincts are that are in.
GA Gov race called
Sounds like Sonny Perdue has won in GA.
Direct link to VA votes
If you are following the VA Senate race, go to the official Commonwealth vote tally. It refreshes every two minutes. As for 8:17, Allen has 50.60% and Webb has 48.17% and are separated by about 22,000 votes.
Thanks
Thanks for the tip.....nice to get such up to date info.
First Democratic gain in the House?
FoxNews (grain of salt...) has called the IN-02 race for Ellsworth (D) over Rep. Hostettler (R).
updated: The other major news agencies are calling for Ellsworth as well.
Also, uber-unpopular Senator Santorum is charging massive vote irregularities in PA. So the charge of voter fraud will come not necessarily from the right or the left, but from the losers.
why so doubtful?
Are you surprised that Fox can call an election accurately? After all, they were the first to call Bush's 2000 election correctly..........
Exactly my point
I'm still not sure that election was called correctly. ;-)
correctly called
Look if you can't get a commission headed by Jesse Jackson to give you a decision in favor of a Democrat, then no one can.
He won, but it wasn't right
Jim,
I do believe that Bush won all the votes that were counted. Of course, the Bush v. Gore court case put a stop to counting additional votes. However, that is ancient history at this point. Tonight's election is showing that although Bush won in 2000 and 2004, it wasn't the right thing to do.
count right, president didn't act right
I'm with you that GWB hasn't done well. I regret the votes for him. I don't regret not voting for Kerry.
Here's hoping this new Congress will do a better job!
Turnout against the Republicans in TN?
MSNBC reported that a quote on the National Journal's blog has Ken Mehlman saying that turnout is "against us" in Tennessee.
I can't negotiate National Journal's homepage (could it get any busier?!?!) to find the blog. Can anyone else valid this?
Marriage amendment in TN
The referendum in TN in favor of a state constitutional amendment against gay marriage has been called as passing in TN.
Ford Jr.
Can anyone give me their take on what happened with Ford Jr. in TN? I thought he would be an easy win, but I have been out of the loop for a month at least.
Just curious, I have always respected the guy.
Ford Jr. - it is all about viewpoint
timothy-
Republicans will say that, although Ford is a famous name in TN, TN is fundamentally a conservative state. Remember that this vote is to replace Bill Frist, a very conservative Senator. So Ford never really had a chance.
Democrats will say that negative ads, especially ones that played on Ford's race, sunk him.
Anyone in TN with a better view than me? I'm simply watching this from DC.
thanks
Expat,
Just revealing my ignorance. I did not realize it was the senate seat race...makes more sense to me now.
(could I be any lazier...)
More on Ford from Hotline
Here's some more from TN about Ford and the ads. Go to the 8:46 update.
"According to FNC exit polls, weekly church goers are voting for TN SEN candidate Bob Corker (R) by a margin of 57%-42%. 74% of TN voters say that Corker has made unfair attacks against Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN), while 94% of black voters are voting for Ford (FNC)."
Ford may still win
Only 4% of precincts reporting.
I can't speak for the state. I only got here 5 months ago (give me another few and I'll have it nailed).
His voting record didn't help him. Voters who self-identify as pro-life weren't wowed by his stance against late term abortions, especially when Corker claims to be against all of them.
Ford's record of being on John Kerry's prez election campaign can't have helped, given John Kerry's joke-fumbling (or letting us peek behind that curtain) last week.
One cheap shot does not deserve another
Jim,
Kerry's 'joke' wasn't funny and it was a cheap shot, but your "or letting us peek behind that curtain" is in the same category.
Democrats don't think the troops are stupid. They may think the civilian leadership is, but certainly not the troops. Wanting to withdraw troops sooner rather than later clearly demonstrates a concern for the troops.
Let's keep tonight's bipartisan effort above board and congenial.
ford hx w/Kerry
All I'm saying is that had Ford not been Kerry's campaign co-chairman, then Kerry's comment last week could not have affected him.
Some one screws up on camera and you helped run his last campaign, it can hurt your chances in a close race.
God knows Bush never misses a beat when making jokes or anything............
Come on...
I understood the original comment, but you clearly were taking a dig at Democrats with the "peak behind curtain" comment.
I'll grant you that Kerry isn't funny and can't pull off a joke. Bush is very good at pulling off a joke. However, that wasn't the point of your side comment.
sorry about the delay........
Expat teacher,
In a post earlier this week, you mentioned a perception that Dems are viewed as being softer ("mommy" to the GOP's "daddy" persona), and part of this is a perception that by and large Dems are not for a strong military. So when Kerry made the statement that kids should study hard and do well or they'll end up in Iraq, it is easy for the GOP to make hay of it.
Consider the following hypothetical, GOP is perceived as being anti-homosexual, not just that the party isn't for same sex marriage - but that Republicans, at their core, loathe homosexuals. If Bush made some comment that homosexuals were evil to the core, he wouldn't escape criticism by saying he'd flubbed a joke. People would think that he'd been caught in an unguarded moment and "now we see what the GOP really thinks".
It's the same w/Kerry. Jokes have a seed of truth in them, that's why they are funny. If someone makes a joke about my hairline, I may think my baldness is really a problem (although it's readily apparent that my hair is so gone).
That's why a brought up the "view behind the curtain" comment. Kerry may think the men and women in the military are really exceptionally bright and talented individuals. However, he's got enough comments on tape (this and comments about how troops in Iraq are terrorizing the countryside) that make him look bad.
If you were only talking about Kerry, then...
I'll stop my objecting to the behind the scene comment. However, if you were suggesting that Democrats in general (which is how I read it since the original was about Kerry and Ford), then I'm still not convinced.
Either way it doesn't really matter. It was just a side comment. Peace, bro?
peace
Was only referring to Kerry when made comment, but I did bring it up because Ford's past relationship w/John Kerry probably didn't help him get elected.
We aren't the only ones voting
Nicaragua has elected Manuel Noriega today.
I thought it was Daniel
I thought it was Daniel Ortega whom the Nicaraguans elected. Hmmm... Norriega? Wasn't he in Panama?
Pennsylvania called
for Casey...Santorum is gone.
Yeah!
Only Allen is slimier, so I'm glad to see this result.
NJ called
for Bob Menendez for US Senate.
Santorum
I don't think much about Santorum one way or the other....but why do you say he is slimy?
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